By Parcel Ogbonna
The Anambra Question: Where the Numbers Stop Making Sense
If there is one comparison that strips Enugu State’s proposed ₦1.62 trillion 2026 budget of its theatrical shine, it is Anambra State.
Anambra is not just another South-East peer. It is governed by a globally recognised economist, a former Governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria, and a former Presidential Economic Adviser, a leadership pedigree grounded in fiscal discipline, macroeconomic realism, and long-term planning.
Beyond leadership credentials, Anambra also possesses:
• stronger and more diversified industrial clusters,
• deeper commercial and trading networks,
• a more vibrant private sector, and
• a higher and more consistent historical Internally Generated Revenue (IGR) performance.
Yet despite these advantages, Anambra’s entire 2026 budget is projected at ₦700–₦770 billion.
This single fact exposes the fault line in Enugu’s proposal.
Enugu’s projected IGR alone, ₦870 billion, is higher than Anambra’s entire budget.
That is not ambition.
That is a contradiction.
Big Numbers, Small Believability
In public finance, size is never the issue. Credibility is.
A budget can be modest yet transformative, or massive yet hollow. Enugu’s ₦1.62 trillion proposal falls squarely into the latter category, not because development is undesirable, but because the assumptions behind the numbers collapse under scrutiny.
When a state with:
• a weaker private-sector base,
• no oil derivation advantage,
• unresolved pension and gratuity arrears stretching 25–30 years,
projects revenues that outperform structurally stronger neighbours, the question is no longer “Is this ambitious?” but “Is this honest?”
The Number That Breaks the Illusion: ₦870 Billion IGR
At the heart of the controversy is Enugu’s claim that it will generate ₦870 billion in IGR, accounting for over 50% of total expenditure.
In regional context:
• Anambra: ~₦60 billion IGR
• Abia (oil-producing): ~₦223 billion
• Ebonyi: ~₦48 billion
• Imo: far below Enugu’s projection
No South-East state, oil-producing or not, comes remotely close.
This is not a marginal forecasting error.
It is an order-of-magnitude distortion.
Oil Derivation: The Advantage Enugu Lacks but Ignores
Abia and Imo benefit from oil derivation, which provides:
• fiscal buffers,
• non-tax inflows,
• resilience during downturns.
Enugu has none of these advantages.
Yet Enugu proposes to internally generate more revenue than oil-producing peers and, astonishingly, more than some states’ entire budgets.
This is where scepticism hardens into suspicion.
Election Year Arithmetic
Budgets are moral documents. They reveal priorities and timing.
Enugu’s 2026 budget is being proposed in an election year, by a government that, by its own political calendar, will effectively shut down governance within six months to focus on re-election campaigns.
At the same time:
• pensioners owed for decades remain unpaid,
• gratuities are outstanding,
• contractors face arrears,
• and service delivery gaps persist.
Against this backdrop, a sudden explosion of fiscal optimism looks less like planning and more like electoral theatre, a numbers-heavy performance designed to impress voters rather than withstand execution.
Why Analysts Call It a Phantom Budget
A phantom budget is not imaginary, it exists on paper but evaporates in practice.
Four warning signs stand out:
1. Extreme Dependence on Taxation
₦870 billion in IGR implies aggressive taxation, higher rates, wider nets, stricter enforcement, on an economy already under strain.
2. The Tax Saturation Trap
When taxation exceeds economic capacity:
• SMEs suffocate,
• businesses retreat into informality,
• compliance falls rather than rises.
3. Vague Capital Receipts
Heavy reliance on loans and conditional financing introduces timing and market risks. When these fail, projects stall.
4. Thin Fiscal Margins
With existing debts, arrears, and pension obligations, even small revenue misses can cascade into unpaid wages, abandoned projects, and emergency borrowing.
A Simple Illustration
Imagine five baskets:
• Anambra, Abia, and Imo have medium baskets, with oil taps.
• Ebonyi has a smaller basket, with realistic inflows.
• Enugu has the largest basket, but no oil tap, labelled “TAXES ONLY.”
Yet Enugu’s basket is expected to carry more water than all the others combined.
That imbalance is the story.
Ambition Without Anchors Is Deception
Ambition drives development.
But ambition without realism erodes trust.
When governments announce projects they cannot fund, raise taxes without delivering services, and inflate budgets during election seasons, public confidence collapses, not gradually, but decisively.
Conclusion: The Anambra Test
The comparison with Anambra is not incidental, it is decisive.
If a state led by one of Nigeria’s most credible economic minds chooses conservative budgeting despite superior fundamentals, why is Enugu, structurally weaker, projecting aggressively?
Until that question is answered honestly, Enugu’s ₦1.62 trillion budget will continue to be seen not as a roadmap for development, but as a desperate election-year gimmick, large on paper, light on truth, and fragile in execution.
In public finance, credibility is currency.
Without it, even the biggest budget buys nothing.
